On Murray On Abolishing the SAT

Posted on 10 June 2010

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Charles Murray, champion for general intelligence, defender of gender and racial differences of IQ scores, surprisingly argues that the SAT should be abolished.  His argument involves three premises:

  1. Achievement test scores predict first year college GPAs better than SAT scores.
  2. The rabid focus on SAT by students, parents, schools, and the coaching industry is harmful.
  3. And the cognitive stratification of the American society.

I’m going to focus on (1), and argue that Murray’s defense smacks of a shell-game.

Murray argues that the SAT is redundant if students also take the College Board’s achievement tests.  Where the SAT-I (and the new version) tests verbal and mathematical ability, the SAT-II tests mastery of specific subjects.  And the SAT-II predicts freshman GPAs better than the SAT-I according to a University of California study:

Achievement tests did slightly better than the SAT in predicting freshman grades. High school grade point average, SAT scores, and achievement test scores were entered into a statistical equation to predict the grade point that applicants achieved during their freshman year in college. The researchers found that achievement tests and high school grade point each had about the same independent role—that is, each factor was, by itself, an equally accurate predictor of how a student will do as a college freshman.

But the SAT’s independent role in predicting freshman grade point turned out to be so small that knowing the SAT score added next to nothing to an admissions officer’s ability to forecast how an applicant will do in college—the reason to give the test in the first place. In technical terms, adding the SAT to the other two elements added just one-tenth of a percentage point to the percentage of variance in freshman grades explained by high school grade point and the achievement tests.

What about students from families with low incomes? Children of parents with poor education? Here’s another stunner: after controlling for parental income and education, the independent role of the SAT in predicting freshman grade point disappeared altogether. The effectiveness of high school grade point and of achievement tests to predict freshman grade point was undiminished.

I don’t doubt the study’s claims or Murray’s conclusion, but you and I both know why the achievement tests predict so well: they are more g-loaded than the SAT.  That is, they are better assessors of the students’ cognitive abilities.  The post-1995 SAT-I was heavily massaged to reduce the gender and racial score disparities due to politically correct pressure in the 1980s and early 1990s.  The pre-1995 SAT was much more g-loaded, evidence being its ability to discriminate very high IQs due to a higher testing ceiling.  However, Murray anticipates this objection and points out:

Did the pre-1994 SAT measure something importantly different from what the post-1994 SAT had measured? Don’t bother asking the College Board. The data for answering that question would require the College Board to reveal just how well the original and revised SATs measure the general mental factor g, the stuff of intelligence/aptitude, and the College Board does not want to acknowledge that the SAT measures g at all or, for that matter, that g even exists.

Seen from an outsider’s perspective, the changes in 1993–1994 do not look particularly important. Twenty-five antonym items in the SAT Verbal were replaced with reading-comprehension items, on grounds that the antonym items could be compromised by students who memorized vocabulary lists. The math test saw some changes in the answer format. But samples of the new items appear to be plausible measures of g and not obviously inferior to the items they replaced.

Despite the College Board’s rhetoric about revamping the SAT to reflect curriculum, the changes in the test in 1993–1994 probably did not have much effect on the SAT’s power to measure g—in the jargon, its g-loading. (I would not make the same statement about today’s SAT, which has eliminated the highly g-loaded analogy items and added a writing component that carries with it a multitude of scoring problems.)

If I am wrong, and the pre-1994 SAT measured g much better than the SAT used for the UC study, then I hope some disaffected College Board psychometrician leaks that news immediately. I will thereupon join a crusade to restore the old SAT. But given the available information, I think it is probable that even analyses conducted prior to the revisions in the test would not have shown a major independent role for the SAT after taking high school transcript and achievement test scores into account. To put it another way, those of us who thought that the SAT was our salvation were probably wrong. Even coming from mediocre high schools, our scores on achievement tests would have conveyed about the same picture to college admissions committees as our scores on the SAT conveyed.

I’m sure the pre-1995 SAT is more g-loaded than Murray is willing to admit.  And I’m also sure that his assessment is correct such that adding the pre-1995 SAT to a battery of achievement test scores and high-school GPAs will add little in better predicting freshman GPAs.  But that’s because the College Board is performing a shell-game, and Murray knows it.  The shell-game consists of moving the heavy g-loading from the pre-1995 SAT to the SAT-II tests while calling them “achievement tests.”  The SAT-I is then massaged to placate the politically correct minded.  We can focus less on the SAT-I, which wrongfully emphasizes “ability,” and focus more on achievement tests, which rightly emphasizes “mastery of specific subjects.”  But this is a ruse; the achievement tests test cognitive ability better than the SAT-I.

If the status-quo continues, then Murray is correct—we should do away with the SAT-I while keeping the SAT-II achievement tests.  However, premise (2) will continue to be true simply for the coaching industry will shift their focus from the SAT to the achievement tests.  Students, parents, and universities will continue to stress, and the politically correct minded will have something new to complain about.  What we truly need to abolish is current educational system.  But that for another discussion.

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Posted in: Education, IQ, SAT